Unique forecasting released by digital skills experts The Coders Guild predicts the UK’s NEET rate could return to post-financial crisis levels without urgent action.

Britain could be on course for more than 1.25 million young people being outside education, employment or training (NEET) by 2030, according to new prediction-based data.

The research projects the UK’s NEET rate could rise from 13.5% in early 2026 to around 16% by 2030, leaving between 1.2 million and 1.3 million young people aged 16 to 24 outside education, employment or training if current trends continue.

The forecasts were developed by The Coders Guild using a bespoke forecasting model that combines the latest Office for National Statistics NEET data, regional labour market trends, House of Commons Library analysis, dem

The model assesses where current trajectories are likely to lead in the absence of significant labour market or policy change, producing both national and regional forecasts to 2030.

The analysis identifies a clear and consistent direction of travel. The UK’s NEET rate has risen steadily since 2021 and is now at its highest level for more than a decade. At the same time, the Government’s independent Young People and Work review has warned the national rate could exceed 16% within five years if existing trends persist. The Coders Guild’s modelling independently reaches a similar conclusion, strengthening the evidence that Britain is heading towards a significant youth employment challenge unless action is taken.

While the Government has announced measures including the Youth Guarantee and wider skills reforms, there is currently insufficient evidence to suggest those policies alone will reverse the underlying trends before 2030. Entry-level recruitment has weakened across many sectors, employers increasingly expect digital and technical skills from new recruits, apprenticeship participation remains below previous levels in key industries, and economic inactivity linked to poor health continues to rise among young people.

Taken together, these factors underpin the forecast that the national NEET rate will continue to increase unless further interventions are introduced.

Crispin Read, Founder of The Coders Guild, said:

“The evidence is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. More young people are finding themselves outside education, employment or training at the same time employers across the UK continue to report shortages in the skills they need, particularly in digital and technical roles.

“We developed this forecast to understand where current trends could leave the country by 2030. By bringing together official data, Government research and regional labour market analysis, we’ve modelled what a business-as-usual future could look like if today’s challenges aren’t addressed.”
He added:

“If current trends continue, Britain could have more than 1.25 million young people outside education, employment or training by the end of the decade. That’s not just a challenge for those individuals – it’s a challenge for employers, productivity and economic growth.

“Businesses are already competing for digital talent, yet too many young people are still missing out on the skills, training and opportunities that would help them build long-term careers. Unless we make better use of apprenticeships, invest in digital skills and create more routes into work, we’re at risk of widening the gap between the talent employers need and the opportunities available to the next generation.”

Regional modelling reveals where the crisis could deepen

Alongside the national forecast, The Coders Guild has also produced the first region-by-region projection of where NEET rates could stand by 2030 under the same business-as-usual assumptions.

The modelling suggests regions that already experience higher youth economic inactivity, fewer apprenticeship opportunities and weaker labour market outcomes are likely to see the greatest increases over the remainder of the decade unless targeted investment closes those gaps.

The North East is forecast to remain England’s most affected region, with the NEET rate rising from 21% today to around 23.5% by 2030, meaning almost one in four young people could be outside education, employment or training.

The East Midlands is projected to reach 19%, followed by Yorkshire and the Humber at 18.1%. The North West and West Midlands are both forecast to remain above the projected national average.

Although London’s projected rate of 14.5% is lower than many other regions, its larger youth population means it could have the highest number of NEET young people in England, with around 152,000 young people outside work, education or training by 2030.

The Coders Guild emphasises that these figures are forecast scenarios rather than official Government projections. They are designed to show where current trends are likely to lead if no significant changes are made to the labour market, education system or skills landscape before 2030.

The organisation is calling for a renewed national focus on digital skills, apprenticeships, employer-led training and earlier careers support, arguing that the forecasts demonstrate the scale of intervention needed to prevent another generation of young people being left behind.

Crispin says:

“It feels like the economy has started betting against young people, and that’s a bet we’ll all lose. The SMEs we work with want to hire young people locally – they just feel they can’t, because it’s too much risk, too much admin, too much cost. Fix that, and they’ll hire. De-risking apprenticeships for smaller businesses is the single biggest lever we’ve got here.”

To find out more, visit: https://thecodersguild.org.uk/hub/news/the-53k-handshake-is-the-traditional-degree-still-delivering-on-its-promise/